How Fast Can I Get Wiped? Simulator
"It won't happen to me" — until it does. This simulator shows how quickly reckless risk management leads to account ruin. Adjust your risk per trade, trading frequency, and win rate to see how many days you have before hitting catastrophic drawdown.
Watch your account balance decline day by day. High risk-per-trade + low win rate = a countdown to zero. Use this to understand why professionals risk 1-2% per trade, not 10%.
Wipeout Estimate
Days to 50% Drawdown
3
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How It Works
Calculation Methodology
This simulator models how quickly poor risk management leads to account ruin. It calculates expected daily loss based on risk per trade, trading frequency, and win rate.
Key Insight: High risk per trade + low win rate + high frequency = fast ruin. At 10% risk per trade with 40% win rate, you can lose 50% of your account in just 7-10 losing trades. This can happen in a single day if you trade frequently.
Learn more about risk management:
Position sizing guideExample Scenario
Setup: $10,000 account, 10% risk per trade, 5 trades/day, 40% win rate
What this means: With 10% risk per trade and 40% win rate, you're losing money on average. At 5 trades per day, you can lose 50% of your account in less than 2 days. This is why professionals risk 1-2% per trade, not 10%.
Common Mistakes & Warnings
- ⚠Overestimating win rate: Most traders think they have 60%+ win rate, but actually have 40-50%. Be honest about your real win rate.
- ⚠Risking too much per trade: 10% risk per trade means 7-10 losses can wipe you out. Professionals risk 1-2% maximum.
- ⚠Trading too frequently: More trades = more opportunities to lose. High frequency + high risk = fast ruin.
- ⚠Ignoring losing streaks: Even with 50% win rate, you can have 5-10 losses in a row. At 10% risk, that's 50-100% of your account.
Example Scenarios
Try these realistic scenarios to understand how quickly poor risk management leads to ruin.
Scenario 1: Conservative Risk (1% per trade)
Professional risk management. Slow but sustainable.
Step-by-Step Calculation:
- Expected loss per trade: 1% × 50% - 1% × 50% × 0.5 = 0.25%
- Daily expected loss: 0.25% × 3 = 0.75%
- Days to 50% drawdown: 0.5 ÷ 0.0075 = ~67 days
- Trades to ruin: 67 × 3 = ~200 trades
What this means: With 1% risk per trade and 50% win rate, you have ~67 days before hitting 50% drawdown. This is sustainable and gives you time to adjust if you're losing. This is how professionals trade.
Scenario 2: Moderate Risk (5% per trade)
Aggressive amateur risk. Fast ruin possible.
Step-by-Step Calculation:
- Expected loss per trade: 5% × 55% - 5% × 45% × 0.5 = 1.625%
- Daily expected loss: 1.625% × 5 = 8.125%
- Days to 50% drawdown: 0.5 ÷ 0.08125 = ~6 days
- Trades to ruin: 6 × 5 = ~30 trades
What this means: With 5% risk per trade and 45% win rate, you can lose 50% of your account in just 6 days. That's less than a week. This is dangerous and unsustainable.
Scenario 3: Extreme Risk (10% per trade)
Reckless gambling. Ruin in days. ⚠️ Extreme danger
Step-by-Step Calculation:
- Expected loss per trade: 10% × 60% - 10% × 40% × 0.5 = 4%
- Daily expected loss: 4% × 10 = 40%
- Days to 50% drawdown: 0.5 ÷ 0.40 = ~1.25 days
- Trades to ruin: 1.25 × 10 = ~12-13 trades
What this means: With 10% risk per trade and 40% win rate, you can lose 50% of your account in just 1-2 days. This is gambling, not trading. You'll be wiped out before you can even realize what happened.
Edge Case Warning: At 10% risk per trade, a single losing streak of 5-7 trades can wipe out 50-70% of your account. This can happen in a single day. Never risk more than 2% per trade, ever.
What If Variations
Explore how changing parameters affects time to ruin:
What if win rate is 60% instead of 40%?
Using Scenario 3: Expected loss per trade drops from 4% to 2%. Days to ruin increases from 1.25 to 2.5 days. Higher win rate helps, but 10% risk is still dangerous.
What if you trade 20 times per day instead of 10?
Using Scenario 3: Daily expected loss doubles from 40% to 80%. Days to ruin drops from 1.25 to 0.625 days (15 hours). More trades = faster ruin.
What if risk is 2% instead of 10%?
Using Scenario 3: Expected loss per trade drops from 4% to 0.8%. Days to ruin increases from 1.25 to ~6 days. Small risk changes have huge impacts on survival time.
Frequently Asked Questions
When should I use this tool?
Use this tool to understand how quickly poor risk management leads to account ruin. Especially useful if you're risking more than 2% per trade, trading frequently, or have a low win rate. It's a wake-up call — see how fast you can get wiped with reckless risk management.
How fast can you really get wiped?
With 10% risk per trade and a losing streak, you can lose 50% of your account in just 7 losses. At high frequency (10+ trades/day), this can happen in a single day. The combination of high risk per trade + high frequency + low win rate = fast ruin.
What's the safe risk level?
Professional traders typically risk 0.5-2% per trade. At 1%, even 10 consecutive losses only result in a 10% drawdown, which requires 11.1% recovery — manageable. At 2% risk, 10 losses = 20% drawdown, requiring 25% recovery — difficult but possible.
How does trading frequency affect time to ruin?
More trades = faster ruin if you have negative expected value. At 5% risk per trade with 40% win rate, 5 trades/day can wipe you in 6 days. 20 trades/day can wipe you in 1-2 days. High frequency amplifies the speed of ruin exponentially.
What if my win rate is higher?
Higher win rate helps, but doesn't eliminate risk. At 10% risk per trade with 60% win rate, you still have negative expected value (losing money on average). You'll still get wiped, just slightly slower. The fundamental problem is risking too much per trade.
How do I avoid getting wiped?
Reduce risk per trade to 1-2% maximum. Reduce trading frequency — quality over quantity. Improve your win rate through better entries. Use the Position Size Calculator to size positions correctly. Never risk more than 2% per trade, ever.
What's the difference between this and Risk of Ruin?
Risk of Ruin shows probability of losing a portion of your account over many trades. How Fast Wiped shows time to ruin based on daily expected loss. They're complementary — Risk of Ruin for strategy sustainability, How Fast Wiped for speed of destruction.
Can I recover if I'm close to ruin?
If you're at 40-50% drawdown, recovery is extremely difficult. You need 67-100% returns just to break even. Most traders never recover from this point. The best strategy is prevention — never let yourself get close to ruin by using proper risk management from the start.
What if I have a winning strategy but high risk?
Even winning strategies can get wiped with high risk per trade. A 60% win rate with 10% risk per trade can still lead to ruin during losing streaks. The key is surviving the bad streaks — use 1-2% risk per trade so you can survive 5-10 losses in a row.
How accurate are these projections?
The calculations are based on expected value and assume consistent risk per trade. Real markets have volatility, but the projections are directionally accurate. If the tool says you'll be wiped in 6 days, you're at extreme risk. Don't ignore the warning — reduce risk immediately.
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