Margin Call Roulette Calculator - Calculate Your Margin Call Risk
Calculate the probability of getting margin called — receiving a warning to add more collateral before liquidation. This free margin call roulette calculator shows how likely you are to get margin called based on your leverage, volatility, maintenance margin requirements, and time horizon.
High leverage + high volatility + low margin buffer = high margin call probability. This tool is a reality check — see how likely you are to get margin called before it happens. Compare your risk to Russian roulette to understand the danger level.
Position leverage multiplier
Current ATR or realized volatility percentage
Exchange maintenance margin requirement (typically 0.5% for perps)
How long you plan to hold the position
Margin Call Risk Assessment
Margin Call Probability
2.4%
Russian Roulette Comparison
Safer than Russian roulette (2.4% vs 16.67%)
Russian roulette has a 1 in 6 chance (16.67%) of firing. This comparison helps put your margin call risk in perspective.
Risk Breakdown
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Calculation Methodology
The margin call roulette calculator estimates the likelihood of getting margin called based on your leverage, volatility, maintenance margin requirements, and time horizon. It combines leverage risk, volatility risk, and time-based risk to provide a comprehensive margin call risk assessment.
Key Insight: Margin call probability increases exponentially with leverage, volatility, and time. A 5% daily volatility with 10x leverage and 0.5% maintenance margin gives you ~4.5% room before margin call — that's a 40%+ margin call probability over 7 days. High leverage in volatile markets operating near maintenance margin is extremely dangerous.
Learn more about margin calls:
Risk management guideMargin Call Probability Example Scenario
Setup: 20x leverage, 6% volatility, 0.5% maintenance margin, 7 days
What this means: With 20x leverage and 6% volatility, you have only 4.5% room before margin call. Volatility (6%) exceeds your margin call distance (4.5%), creating a 70% margin call probability. This position is extremely dangerous — you're very likely to get margin called, and you're more than 4x riskier than Russian roulette.
Common Mistakes & Warnings
- ⚠Ignoring high margin call probability: If margin call probability is above 10%, you're likely to get margin called. Don't ignore this — reduce risk immediately or skip the trade.
- ⚠High leverage in volatile markets: Combining high leverage with high volatility creates extreme margin call probability. Use lower leverage when volatility is high.
- ⚠Operating near maintenance margin: Low margin buffers increase margin call probability. Keep sufficient margin buffer above maintenance requirements.
- ⚠Holding too long: Longer time horizons increase margin call probability. High-leverage positions should be short-term or you need very low volatility.
Margin Call Roulette Examples - Real Scenarios
Try these realistic trading scenarios to understand how different parameters affect margin call probability.
Scenario 1: Safe Position (Low Leverage)
Conservative leverage with low volatility for safe trading.
What this means: With 5x leverage and 2% volatility, you have ~19% room before margin call. Volatility is much lower than margin call distance, creating low margin call probability. This is a safe setup with good risk management, and you're safer than Russian roulette.
Scenario 2: Risky Position (High Leverage)
High leverage with moderate volatility creating significant risk.
What this means: With 20x leverage and 5% volatility, you have only ~4.5% room before margin call. Volatility is close to margin call distance, creating high margin call probability. This is risky — you have a significant chance of getting margin called, and you're 2-3x riskier than Russian roulette.
Scenario 3: Extreme Risk Position (Very High Leverage)
Extreme leverage with high volatility — almost certain margin call. ⚠️ Extreme danger
What this means: With 50x leverage and 8% volatility, you have only ~1.5% room before margin call. Volatility (8%) is much higher than margin call distance (1.5%), creating extremely high margin call probability. This position is almost certain to get margin called, and you're 5-6x riskier than Russian roulette.
Critical Warning: At 50x leverage with 8% volatility, you're almost guaranteed to get margin called. This is gambling, not trading. Do not enter positions with this level of risk.
Margin Call Roulette Calculator - Frequently Asked Questions
When should I use this tool?
Use this tool before opening any leveraged position to understand your margin call probability. Especially important if you're using leverage above 5x, trading volatile assets, or operating close to maintenance margin requirements. It's a reality check — see how likely you are to get margin called.
What is a margin call?
A margin call occurs when your margin ratio falls below the maintenance margin requirement. The exchange will warn you to add more collateral or risk liquidation. This tool calculates the probability that adverse price movements will trigger a margin call based on your leverage, volatility, and margin requirements.
How is margin call probability calculated?
Margin call probability combines leverage risk (how close you are to maintenance margin), volatility risk (how much price can move), and time-based risk. Higher leverage + higher volatility + lower margin buffer = higher margin call probability. The calculation uses statistical models to estimate the likelihood of price movements triggering a margin call.
What's a safe margin call probability?
Professional traders aim for less than 1% margin call probability. Conservative traders want less than 0.1%. If your margin call probability is above 5%, you're in the danger zone. Above 10% is extremely risky — you're likely to get margin called. Above 20% is essentially gambling.
How does volatility affect margin call probability?
Volatility is the biggest factor. High volatility means larger price swings, bringing margin call closer. A 3% daily volatility with 10x leverage gives you ~7% room before margin call. A 6% volatility with 10x leverage gives you only ~4% room — much riskier. Volatility directly impacts how likely adverse price movements are to trigger a margin call.
What if my margin call probability is very high?
If margin call probability is above 10%, you need to reduce risk immediately. Lower leverage, add more margin, or wait for lower volatility. High margin call probability means you're likely to get margin called — don't ignore this warning. It's better to miss a trade than to get margin called and potentially liquidated.
How does time horizon affect margin call probability?
Longer time horizons increase margin call probability because more time = more opportunities for adverse price movements. A position with 5% daily margin call probability has ~64% chance of getting margin called over 20 days. Time is the enemy of high-leverage positions operating near maintenance margin.
What's the difference between margin call and liquidation?
Margin call is a warning that your margin ratio is getting low — you need to add collateral. Liquidation happens when margin falls below maintenance margin and your position is forcibly closed. Margin call probability is higher than liquidation probability because it triggers earlier. Use both margin call and liquidation distance tools together.
Can I reduce margin call probability by adding margin?
Yes, adding margin reduces margin call probability by moving the margin call threshold further away. However, this ties up more capital. It's often better to reduce leverage or position size instead. Adding margin doesn't fix an oversized position — it just delays the inevitable.
What does the Russian roulette comparison mean?
The Russian roulette comparison shows how risky your position is relative to a game of Russian roulette (1 in 6 chance, or ~16.7%). If your margin call probability is 20%, you're riskier than Russian roulette. If it's 5%, you're safer. This helps put risk in perspective — if you're riskier than Russian roulette, you're taking extreme risk.
Should I trade if margin call probability is high?
No — high margin call probability means you're likely to get margin called. It's better to skip the trade, reduce leverage, add more margin, or wait for better conditions. No trade is worth a high probability of getting margin called. Risk management is more important than potential profits.
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