Rekt Probability Calculator - Calculate Your Liquidation Risk
Calculate the probability of getting rekt — getting completely destroyed through liquidation or catastrophic losses. This free rekt probability calculator shows how likely you are to get liquidated based on your position size, leverage, volatility, and market conditions.
High leverage + high volatility + oversized positions = high rekt probability. This tool is a reality check — see how likely you are to get liquidated before it happens. Use it to avoid positions that are likely to end in disaster.
Total value of your leveraged position
Position leverage multiplier
Current ATR or realized volatility percentage
Your total trading account capital
Price at which you entered the position
How long you plan to hold the position
Rekt Risk Assessment
Rekt Probability
33.5%
Risk Breakdown
High rekt probability warning
Your rekt probability is 33.5% — you're likely to get liquidated. Consider reducing leverage, reducing position size, or waiting for lower volatility. Check your liquidation distance to see actual liquidation risk.
Check liquidation distanceWant these limits enforced automatically?
Jungle Rebounder helps execute structured strategies with hard caps.
See Jungle RebounderHow the Rekt Probability Calculator Works
Calculation Methodology
The rekt probability calculator estimates the likelihood of getting liquidated or suffering catastrophic losses based on your position parameters and market conditions. It combines liquidation risk, volatility risk, and time-based risk to provide a comprehensive risk assessment.
Key Insight: Rekt probability increases exponentially with leverage, volatility, and time. A 5% daily volatility with 10x leverage gives you ~10% room before liquidation — that's a 40%+ rekt probability over 7 days. High leverage in volatile markets is extremely dangerous.
Learn more about risk management:
Risk management guideRekt Probability Example Scenario
Setup: $10,000 position, 20x leverage, 8% volatility, $10,000 account, 7 days, $50,000 entry
What this means: With 20x leverage and 8% volatility, you have only 4.5% room before liquidation. Volatility (8%) is almost double your liquidation distance (4.5%), creating an 85% rekt probability. This position is extremely dangerous — you're very likely to get liquidated.
Common Mistakes & Warnings
- ⚠Ignoring high rekt probability: If rekt probability is above 10%, you're likely to get liquidated. Don't ignore this — reduce risk immediately or skip the trade.
- ⚠High leverage in volatile markets: Combining high leverage with high volatility creates extreme rekt probability. Use lower leverage when volatility is high.
- ⚠Oversized positions: Large positions relative to account size increase rekt probability. Keep position size reasonable relative to account.
- ⚠Holding too long: Longer time horizons increase rekt probability. High-leverage positions should be short-term or you need very low volatility.
Rekt Probability Examples - Real Scenarios
Try these realistic trading scenarios to understand how different parameters affect rekt probability.
Scenario 1: Safe Position (Low Leverage)
Conservative leverage with low volatility for safe trading.
What this means: With 5x leverage and 2% volatility, you have ~19% room before liquidation. Volatility is much lower than liquidation distance, creating low rekt probability. This is a safe setup with good risk management.
Scenario 2: Risky Position (High Leverage)
High leverage with moderate volatility creating significant risk.
What this means: With 20x leverage and 5% volatility, you have only ~4.5% room before liquidation. Volatility is close to liquidation distance, creating high rekt probability. This is risky — you have a significant chance of getting liquidated.
Scenario 3: Rekt-Bound Position (Extreme Risk)
Extreme leverage with high volatility — almost certain liquidation. ⚠️ Extreme danger
What this means: With 50x leverage and 8% volatility, you have only ~1.5% room before liquidation. Volatility (8%) is much higher than liquidation distance (1.5%), creating extremely high rekt probability. This position is almost certain to get liquidated.
Critical Warning: At 50x leverage with 8% volatility, you're almost guaranteed to get liquidated. This is gambling, not trading. Do not enter positions with this level of risk.
Rekt Probability Calculator - Frequently Asked Questions
When should I use this tool?
Use this tool before opening any high-leverage position to understand your rekt probability. Especially important if you're using leverage above 10x, trading volatile assets, or sizing positions aggressively. It's a reality check — see how likely you are to get liquidated.
What does 'rekt' mean?
Rekt is trading slang for getting completely destroyed — usually through liquidation or catastrophic losses. This tool calculates the probability that your position will get liquidated or suffer severe losses based on your leverage, position size, and market volatility.
How is rekt probability calculated?
Rekt probability combines liquidation risk (based on leverage and volatility), position size risk (relative to account), and time-based risk. Higher leverage + higher volatility + larger position size = higher rekt probability. The calculation uses statistical models to estimate liquidation likelihood.
What's a safe rekt probability?
Professional traders aim for less than 1% rekt probability. Conservative traders want less than 0.1%. If your rekt probability is above 5%, you're in the danger zone. Above 10% is extremely risky — you're likely to get liquidated. Above 20% is essentially gambling.
How does volatility affect rekt probability?
Volatility is the biggest factor. High volatility means larger price swings, bringing liquidation closer. A 5% daily volatility with 10x leverage gives you ~10% room before liquidation. A 10% volatility with 10x leverage gives you only ~5% room — much riskier.
What if my rekt probability is very high?
If rekt probability is above 10%, you need to reduce risk immediately. Lower leverage, reduce position size, or wait for lower volatility. High rekt probability means you're likely to get liquidated — don't ignore this warning. It's better to miss a trade than to get rekt.
How does time horizon affect rekt probability?
Longer time horizons increase rekt probability because more time = more opportunities for adverse price movements. A position with 5% daily rekt probability has ~64% chance of getting rekt over 20 days. Time is the enemy of high-leverage positions.
What's the difference between rekt probability and liquidation distance?
Liquidation distance shows how far price needs to move to liquidate you. Rekt probability shows how likely that is to happen based on volatility and time. A 5% liquidation distance with 10% volatility = high rekt probability. Use both tools together.
Can I reduce rekt probability by adding margin?
Yes, adding margin reduces rekt probability by moving liquidation further away. However, this ties up more capital. It's often better to reduce leverage or position size instead. Adding margin doesn't fix an oversized position — it just delays the inevitable.
What's a good safety score?
Safety score ranges from 0-100. 90-100 = very safe (low rekt probability). 70-89 = safe (moderate risk). 50-69 = risky (high rekt probability). Below 50 = extremely risky (likely to get rekt). Aim for 80+ for most trades.
Should I trade if rekt probability is high?
No — high rekt probability means you're likely to get liquidated. It's better to skip the trade, reduce leverage, or wait for better conditions. No trade is worth a high probability of getting rekt. Risk management is more important than potential profits.
Related Tools
Margin Call Roulette Calculator
Calculate probability of getting margin called at different leverage levels with price volatility. Visualize your margin call risk and see how it compares to Russian roulette.
2 matching tags
How Fast Do I Get Wiped?
Estimate how quickly an account can reach ruin based on leverage and risk behavior.
Similar use case